Am I Too Late for Bitcoin?
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Did You Ask Yourself This Question?
Am I Too Late for Bitcoin?
Since the creation of Bitcoin happened thirteen years ago already, we might think that most of its growth is behind it. That's partly due to our bias that the current state of things might be in the final stage of development. But when we think about and measure where Bitcoin is in its growth trajectory, we find the opposite is true: it is still very early.
There are two ways to estimate how early it is for Bitcoin as a store of value asset.
- Valuation as a percent of its full potential
- Adoption as a percent of its full potential
The most common way to assess how early it is for Bitcoin is to look at its total value (currently ~$500B) and compare that to its full potential.
We can compare it to gold on the low side, and estimate how much it will capture from other various store of value assets on the high side.
Number of Bitcoin adopters
Another way is to estimate the number of Bitcoin holders worldwide.
Since there are different levels of Bitcoin adoption, let’s segment Bitcoin adoption into four different “levels”:
- Casual dabblers (toe dippers)
- 1% allocators (ankle deep)
- Significant believers (waist high)
- Bitcoin maximalists (gone snorkeling)
- From a valuation perspective, Bitcoin (currently ~$500B) potential is at least that of gold (~$13T) but theoretically more like $200T (about half the world’s total value).
- From an adoption perspective, there is significant upside from the four types of Bitcoin holders
- Most of Bitcoin’s upside remains at the current stage of its existence
No matter how you look at the numbers, it’s still very early for Bitcoin. By looking at Bitcoin’s valuation as a percentage of its full potential, we see that Bitcoin’s current value is between 0.2% and 3% of its eventual end state, meaning 30x to 500x upside remains. By looking at Bitcoin’s adoption progress, we see that Bitcoin’s current adoption penetration is between 0.01% and 8.5%, depending on what threshold of adoption you look at.
If you read this now in late 2021, you are still very early: Congratulations and enjoy stacking while it's still quite cheap!
Read the complete post here on the Swan Bitcoin blog:
Swan Bitcoin is one of the easiest way we know to buy Bitcoin using your bank account automatically every week or month, starting with as little as $10.
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