Am I Too Late for Bitcoin?

Nov 10, 2021

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Did You Ask Yourself This Question?

Am I Too Late for Bitcoin?

Since the creation of Bitcoin happened thirteen years ago already, we might think that most of its growth is behind it. That's partly due to our bias that the current state of things might be in the final stage of development. But when we think about and measure where Bitcoin is in its growth trajec­tory, we find the opposite is true: it is still very early. 

There are two ways to estimate how early it is for Bitcoin as a store of value asset.

  1. Valua­tion as a percent of its full potential
  2. Adoption as a percent of its full poten­tial 


The most common way to assess how early it is for Bitcoin is to look at its total value (currently ~$500B) and compare that to its full poten­tial.

We can compare it to gold on the low side, and estimate how much it will capture from other various store of value assets on the high side.  

Number of Bitcoin adopters

Another way is to estimate the number of Bitcoin holders world­wide. 

Since there are different levels of Bitcoin adoption, let’s segment Bitcoin adoption into four different “levels”:

  1. Casual dabblers (toe dippers)
  2. 1% alloca­tors (ankle deep)
  3. Signif­i­cant believers (waist high)
  4. Bitcoin maximal­ists (gone snorkeling)

Key Takeaways:

  • From a valuation perspective, Bitcoin (currently ~$500B) poten­tial is at least that of gold (~$13T) but theoret­i­cally more like $200T (about half the world’s total value). 
  • From an adoption perspective, there is significant upside from the four types of Bitcoin holders
  • Most of Bitcoin’s upside remains at the current stage of its existence


No matter how you look at the numbers, it’s still very early for Bitcoin. By looking at Bitcoin’s valua­tion as a percentage of its full poten­tial, we see that Bitcoin’s current value is between 0.2% and 3% of its eventual end state, meaning 30x to 500x upside remains. By looking at Bitcoin’s adoption progress, we see that Bitcoin’s current adoption penetra­tion is between 0.01% and 8.5%, depending on what threshold of adoption you look at. 

If you read this now in late 2021, you are still very early: Congrat­u­la­tions and enjoy stacking while it's still quite cheap!

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Related posts:

  1. Bitcoin White Paper by Satoshi Nakamoto Published 13 years ago
  2. Bitcoin just surged past $61,000!
  3. Buy Bitcoin in an ETF? Not so fast.

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